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Course overview
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1. Overview of Catastrophic AI Risks
0.1
Preface
1.1
Overview of Catastrophic AI Risks
1.2
Malicious Use
1.3
AI Race
1.4
Organizational Risks
1.5
Rogue AIs
1.6
Discussion of Connections Between Risks
2. AI Fundamentals
2.1
AI Fundamentals
2.2
Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning
2.3
Deep Learning
2.4
Scaling Laws
2.5
Speed of AI Development
2.6
AI Fundamentals Conclusion
3. Single Agent Safety
3.1
Single Agent Safety
3.2
Monitoring
3.3
Robustness
3.4
Alignment
3.5
Systemic Safety
3.6
Safety and General Capabilities
3.7
Conclusion
4. Safety Engineering
4.1
Safety Engineering
4.2
Risk Decomposition
4.3
Nines of Reliability
4.4
Safe Design Principles
4.5
Component Failure Accident Models and Methods
4.6
Systemic Factors
4.7
Tail Events and Black Swans
4.8
Conclusion
5. Complex Systems
5.1
Complex Systems
5.2
Introduction to Complex Systems
5.3
Complex Systems for AI Safety
5.4
Conclusion
6. Beneficial AI and Machine Ethics
6.1
Beneficial AI and Machine Ethics
6.2
Law
6.3
Fairness
6.4
The Economic Engine
6.5
Wellbeing
6.6
Preferences
6.7
Happiness
6.8
Social Welfare Functions
6.9
Moral Uncertainty
7. Collective Action Problems
7.1
Collective Action Problems
7.2
Game Theory
7.3
Cooperation
7.4
Conflict
7.5
Evolutionary Pressures
7.6
Conclusion
8. Governance
8.1
Governance
8.2
Growth
8.3
Distribution
8.4
Corporate Governance
8.5
National Governance
8.6
International Governance
8.7
Compute Governance
8.8
Conclusion
9. Appendices
9.1
App. A: Normative Ethics
10.1
App. B: Utility Functions
11.1
App. C: Reinforcement Learning
12.1
App. D: Long-Tailed and Thin-Tailed Distributions
13.1
App. E: Evolutionary Game Theory
14.1
App. F: Other Cooperation Mechanisms
15.1
App. G: Intrasystem Conflict Causes
16.1
Acknowledgements
All
Section
Appendix
4.2

Risk Decomposition

We can evaluate a risk by breaking it down into the probability of an adverse event and the amount of harm it would cause. This enables us to quantitatively compare various kinds of risks. If we have enough information, we can analyze risks further in terms of our level of exposure to them and how vulnerable we are to damage from them, as well as our ability to cope.

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Review Questions

Consider the hazard of icy roads posing a risk of a car crash. Construct the two-factor risk equation for this hazard.

Answer:

risk = probability(crash) * severity(crash)

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A more detailed equation breaks down the risk into hazard level, exposure, and vulnerability. Describe a measure we might take to reduce each of these factors.

Answer:

We could reduce the hazard level by putting grit on the roads. We could reduce exposure by minimising the amount of driving we do in icy conditions, i.e. only driving if it’s essential. We could reduce vulnerability by ensuring the car has appropriate safety features and always wearing a seatbelt, for example.

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0.1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.7
4.8
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.4
6.5
6.6
6.7
6.8
6.9
7.1
7.2
7.3
7.4
7.5
7.6
8.1
8.2
8.3
8.4
8.5
8.6
8.7
8.8
9.1
10.1
11.1
12.1
13.1
14.1
15.1
16.1
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Citation:
Dan Hendrycks. Introduction to AI Safety, Ethics and Society. Taylor & Francis, (forthcoming). ISBN: 9781032798028. URL: www.aisafetybook.com

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