Join the AISES course
Take action
Course overview
Curriculum
Download textbook
1. Overview of Catastrophic AI Risks
0.1
Preface
1.1
Overview of Catastrophic AI Risks
1.2
Malicious Use
1.3
AI Race
1.4
Organizational Risks
1.5
Rogue AIs
1.6
Discussion of Connections Between Risks
2. AI Fundamentals
2.1
AI Fundamentals
2.2
Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning
2.3
Deep Learning
2.4
Scaling Laws
2.5
Speed of AI Development
2.6
AI Fundamentals Conclusion
3. Single Agent Safety
3.1
Single Agent Safety
3.2
Monitoring
3.3
Robustness
3.4
Alignment
3.5
Systemic Safety
3.6
Safety and General Capabilities
3.7
Conclusion
4. Safety Engineering
4.1
Safety Engineering
4.2
Risk Decomposition
4.3
Nines of Reliability
4.4
Safe Design Principles
4.5
Component Failure Accident Models and Methods
4.6
Systemic Factors
4.7
Tail Events and Black Swans
4.8
Conclusion
5. Complex Systems
5.1
Complex Systems
5.2
Introduction to Complex Systems
5.3
Complex Systems for AI Safety
5.4
Conclusion
6. Beneficial AI and Machine Ethics
6.1
Beneficial AI and Machine Ethics
6.2
Law
6.3
Fairness
6.4
The Economic Engine
6.5
Wellbeing
6.6
Preferences
6.7
Happiness
6.8
Social Welfare Functions
6.9
Moral Uncertainty
7. Collective Action Problems
7.1
Collective Action Problems
7.2
Game Theory
7.3
Cooperation
7.4
Conflict
7.5
Evolutionary Pressures
7.6
Conclusion
8. Governance
8.1
Governance
8.2
Growth
8.3
Distribution
8.4
Corporate Governance
8.5
National Governance
8.6
International Governance
8.7
Compute Governance
8.8
Conclusion
9. Appendices
9.1
App. A: Normative Ethics
10.1
App. B: Utility Functions
11.1
App. C: Reinforcement Learning
12.1
App. D: Long-Tailed and Thin-Tailed Distributions
13.1
App. E: Evolutionary Game Theory
14.1
App. F: Other Cooperation Mechanisms
15.1
App. G: Intrasystem Conflict Causes
16.1
Acknowledgements
All
Section
Appendix
4.3

Nines of Reliability

A system’s nines of reliability indicate the number of consecutive nines at the beginning of its percentage or decimal reliability. In the case of a risk of ruin, an additional nine of reliability means a tenfold increase in expected lifespan.

No items found.

Review Questions

In terms of the nines of reliability, calculate how much improvement we get by improving a system’s percentage reliability from 62% to 63%.

Answer:

k = -log(1-p)

For 62% reliability, p = 0.62, k = 0.420.

For 63% reliability, p = 0.63, k = 0.432.

So we get an improvement of 0.432 – 0.420 = 0.012 nines of reliability.

View Answer
Hide Answer

In terms of the nines of reliability, calculate how much improvement we get by improving a system’s percentage reliability from 98% to 99%?

Answer:

For 98%, p = 0.98, k = 1.699.

For 99%, p = 0.99, k = 2.

So we get an improvement of 2 – 1.699 = 0.301 nines of reliability.

View Answer
Hide Answer

In percentage terms, both situations above represent an improvement of 1%. In terms of the nines of reliability, which situation shows a more meaningful improvement, and how much more meaningful is it?

Answer:

The second situation shows a more meaningful improvement. It is about 25 times more meaningful than the first situation. (0.301/0.012)

View Answer
Hide Answer
0.1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.7
4.8
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.4
6.5
6.6
6.7
6.8
6.9
7.1
7.2
7.3
7.4
7.5
7.6
8.1
8.2
8.3
8.4
8.5
8.6
8.7
8.8
9.1
10.1
11.1
12.1
13.1
14.1
15.1
16.1
Get Involved
Express InterestVirtual courseFacilitateTake ActionSubmit Feedback
Textbook Resources
Start reading
Textbook audiobook
Table of contentsDownload textbookContent for curriculum
Terms of ServicePrivacy Policy

Citation:
Dan Hendrycks. Introduction to AI Safety, Ethics and Society. Taylor & Francis, (2024). ISBN: 9781032798028. URL: www.aisafetybook.com

Cookies Notice: This website uses cookies to identify pages that are being used most frequently. This helps us analyze data about web page traffic and improve our website. We only use this information for the purpose of statistical analysis and then the data is removed from the system. We do not and will never sell user data. Read more about our cookie policy on our privacy policy. Please contact us if you have any questions.

© 2024 Center for AI Safety
Built by Osborn Design Works